Claims
37 claims · 01.01.1150 – 11.06.2026
Content language
"In an extreme scenario, ETS2 can push inflation up by as much as two percentage points. This is not an abstraction, it is a real loss of purchasing power for everyone. "
translated
PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"if in January 2028 you wake up in the morning, refuel your car and turn on your gas heater, you will pay more. without declaration, without office, without choice, simply built into the price. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"Interest next year will consume not 115 but 130, 140 billion zlotys. There will be nothing left to pay for benefits, defense, or investments without deep changes. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"Walensja wins. Center-right correction. Attempt to rebuild relations with Washington. Fiscal plan to be agreed with Congress. PESO may strengthen below 3500, and the Colcup index returns to an upward trend. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"De la Spa wins. Salvadoran-style shock. Short-term strengthening of the PESO on a wave of right-wing investor enthusiasm and immediate risk of collision with the Supreme Court, Constitutional Tribunal, and Congress, i.e., political risk premium going up after the first attempts at extradition decrees. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"First short-term scenario. Trump and Xi agree on Iran. Beijing pressures Tehran. Iran yields on Hormuz. Tankers move. Brent falls to around $80, maybe lower. What does this mean in practice for Poland? Inflation loses momentum. Fuel at stations gets cheaper by several dozen groszy. Electricity bills stop being so scary, at least a bit. The National Bank of Poland gets an argument to maintain interest rates or even to cut them slightly. The zloty strengthens, WIG 20 catches its breath. General relief. "
translated
PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
Ad
"And the second option is to return to bond buying and continue printing yen. It saves bonds but kills the currency. The yen is already at 160, and at 200 we have a scenario where imported inflation devours the remnants of real wages. Senior poverty increases geometrically. Another Akio in rice shops. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"Annually, Japan could become insolvent at 2% rates. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"Optimistic scenario. Trump makes a deal with Iran. Ormus returns to normal. Jet fuel drops to $120 per barrel in summer. Bydgoszcz regains Frankfurt in the fourth quarter, and the pessimistic scenario: war escalates, Russia continues to scheme. European reserves fall below 23 days. physical shortages at airports, rationing, ban on short-haul flights, and with this scenario, a full recession in the aviation industry. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"And now everything depends on two things. On the outcome of these talks. If some agreement is signed. Well, then it will probably last until the elections, because then the circus will start again. I am deeply convinced that after November, it will all come back again. Uh, that, uh, first of all, that's the first condition for the bull market to last, and the second condition is the results that will be reported, I'm looking at the calendar, between April 22nd and 29th, by the Magnificent Seven companies and not only them. There's also IBM. I think IBM and Tesla are on the 22nd. Intel on the 23rd. Well, various ones. I think three Magnificent Seven companies report on the 29th. Nvidia only sometime at the end of May. Therefore, we are waiting, and depending on what we see there, actually what the management forecasts will be after the reports are published, then in conjunction with this de-escalation, we can see a bull market, a continuation of the bull market. If something slips, or there is no de-escalation, or worse, the forecasts are unsatisfactory, they will certainly be good, but maybe unsatisfactory, then we will return to a correctional arrangement. How it will be, I cannot decide at the moment, because I don't know what the companies will say and I definitely don't know what Mr. Trump will come up with in the meantime. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"Furthermore, from low orbit, nuclear pulse engines are the most probable, relying on nuclear impulses simply pushing the ship, where small charges are ejected, they explode and push the ship. And then we will fly to Mars in, for example, 14 days. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Technology
"The Federal Reserve faces a tragic choice. Either allow a great recession, or print its way out of debt and sacrifice the value of the dollar. In both scenarios, gold wins and that's why they are buying. "
translated
PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"Goldman Sachs raised forecasts. Prices averaged $110 in March and April with a risk of significantly higher. If Hormuz remains closed for 10 weeks, prices could beat the 2008 record of $147 per barrel. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"Bloomberg models a scenario in which oil reaches $170 per barrel, and then we have full stagflation in the Eurozone, which is the worst thing that can actually happen in the economy. Inflation up by 2 percentage points, GDP down by 1.2. And the Revolutionary Guard openly threatens that the price will reach $200. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"Well, if they reach 150, because I'm counting on 150 million revenues in 2027, then 150 x 16 = 2400, 2.4 billion in 2027. "
translated
PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
Ad
"assuming, you know, putting forward such a daring thesis, that whoever was behind this story that happened in Poland with this object, wanted to send us a message that would direct us to the Rendlesham story, which would mean that something that caused this incident near Poznań is also behind the Rendlesham story, that it might be the same, the same group of alien beings. You understand, that if the object is so similar, it means that, for example, they simply have such objects. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Other
"an important matter is also related to the fact that this stone glowed with a delicate light for half a year, which is confirmed by the family in whose home this stone was; the matter is all the more interesting because if it turns out that this stone is connected to an extraterrestrial object, a UFO-type object, it could be one of the most important ufological artifacts in the world "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Other
"I believe that this war will not end in such a way that there will be a bang and some peace. If there is even a temporary ceasefire, it will be temporary, because it will flare up again, it will flare up again. It will continue all the time and up to a certain point. So, if I return to the earlier question, if there is some natural disaster, only then will it end, right? That is, something external that will suddenly make their dispute and their war lose significance, and at that moment it will end. "
translated
PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Armed conflicts
"I believe that this war will not end in such a way that there will be a bang and some peace. If there is even a temporary ceasefire, it will be temporary, because it will flare up again, it will flare up again. It will be all the time and up to a certain point. Well, if I go back to the previous question, that there will be some natural disaster, only then will it end, right? That is, something external that will suddenly make their dispute and their war lose significance, and at that moment it will end. "
translated
PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Armed conflicts
"Third scenario: selling facts after buying rumors and at least a short-term downward correction. "
translated
PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy