"Więc, ponownie, kiedy patrzymy na rozkład prawdopodobieństw, powiedziałbym, że najbardziej prawdopodobnym miesiącem dla dołka jest październik, ale to nie znaczy, że nie możesz mieć dołka w czerwcu, ani że nie możesz mieć dołka w styczniu. Oznacza to tylko, że w obecnym czasie nie są to najbardziej prawdopodobne wyniki." "So, again, when we're looking at a distribution of the probabilities, I would say the most likely month for a low is October, but that doesn't mean you can't have a low in June, and that you can't have a low in January. It just means that at the current time, they're not the most likely outcomes."
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… That's a possibility, but it it's still not my base case. It's still not my base case. I think that about a year-long bear market makes sense. But what what keeps me on my toes is the fact that in 2013, the bear market lasted from November 2013 to January of 2015. So, it lasted slightly longer than a year. So, again, when we're looking at a distribution of the probabilities, I would say the most likely month for a low is October, but that doesn't mean you can't have a low in June, and that you can't have a low in January. It just means that at the current time, they're not the most likely outcomes. If Bitcoin were to crash to 40K this month, then the odds of the low being in June go up astronomically. If the low just holds at 60, then there's there's a chance that's the low, but the jury would still be out, right? Like, we would still have to wait to know for sure, you know? So, that those are my thoughts about this, and and I I mean, I thin …
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