"Jednym ze scenariuszy jest spadek Bitcoina do 200-tygodniowej średniej kroczącej, być może nawet poniżej niej, być może naruszenie poprzedniego dołka, tak jak to miało miejsce w 2018 roku, gdzie naruszył dołek, odbił się w lipcu, prawda? A potem czekamy i zastanawiamy się, czy Bitcoin zaliczy ostateczny spadek w IV kwartale, tak jak zawsze. Czy zaliczy ostateczny spadek pod koniec roku?" "One way it could play out is Bitcoin drops down to that 200-week moving average, maybe even goes below it, maybe sweeps the prior low, kind of like it did in 2018 where it swept the low, bounces into July, right? And then we wait and figure out if Bitcoin gets the final dropping Q4 like it always does. Does it get the final drop at the end of the year?"
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… window of weakness will likely persist for a few more weeks, probably into June, mid to late June seems about right. And if that happens, then I would be looking for a countertrend rally potentially in July. Again, these are not tradeable ideas. I'm not saying go trade this idea. I'm just saying what I think is the path to the actual low. And so, one way it could play out is Bitcoin drops down to that 200-week moving average, maybe even goes below it, maybe sweeps the prior low, kind of like it did in 2018 where it swept the low, bounces into July, right? And then we wait and figure out if Bitcoin gets the final dropping Q4 like it always does. Does it get the final drop at the end of the year? And unfortunately, we can't speed this process up. It doesn't matter what happens between now and Q4. Until we actually get to Q4, there's no way to know. So, Bitcoin could go down to say 58K and then bounce back to 70 or 80K, and we're still not going to know for sure if there won't just be another capitulation in Q4 when there's always a capitul …
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