"My bear case for how low Bitcoin drops is about $51,000. If this head and shoulders plays out, Bitcoin will reach about $51,000. This happened three times last cycle. There's only two red lines here, but the third one should be here. And if these bear flags play out, Bitcoin hits $51,000 and then changes course and starts heading up. $51,000 is my bear case."

"Bitcoin can absolutely fall lower. The macro headwinds are there, and this is how it could happen this year. June, mega IPOs/AI suck up all the capital. July, stock market crashes and bare market begins. August, the 10-year Treasury hits 6%. September, the Fed hikes rates. October, the Clarity Act fails to pass. November, midterm election chaos. December, a black swan. "

"Strategy sold 0.004% of its Bitcoin supply to prove to the S&P that it could. This is what's going to get Michael Saylor's Strategy into the S&P 500. Brilliant. "

"Moral of the story, do not chase hot IPOs. The year one average drawdown is 55%. The year one median drawdown is 54%. "

"So don't buy SpaceX, buy this instead. Buy what SpaceX is buying. And you'll notice this, SpaceX holds 6% of its corporate treasury in Bitcoin. They own over 18,000 Bitcoin. "