Comparic Rynki 29.05.2026

✓ True

"This year, Poland will have the highest budget deficit among all European Union member states. The need for fiscal correction is clearly visible. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

✅ Factual claim Economy

Comparic Rynki 29.05.2026

~ Partially

"Interest next year will consume not 115 but 130, 140 billion zlotys. There will be nothing left to pay for benefits, defense, or investments without deep changes. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🌐 Scenario Economy

Comparic Rynki 28.05.2026

✓ Fulfilled

"The Korean army needs over 200,000 recruits annually to maintain the defense line at the 38th parallel. Meanwhile, forecasts say that by 2040, the number of 20-year-olds will drop to approximately 130,000. There is a shortage of over 70,000 soldiers annually. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Society 2040

Albert Rokicki 27.05.2026

~ Partially

"SpaceX will practically immediately and automatically enter these key indexes, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 as well, I believe. Also, ETFs will not so much want to, but will have to buy these shares. So, such passive demand will appear immediately. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Economy 2026

Comparic Rynki 23.05.2026

✗ Negated

"Walensja wins. Center-right correction. Attempt to rebuild relations with Washington. Fiscal plan to be agreed with Congress. PESO may strengthen below 3500, and the Colcup index returns to an upward trend. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🌐 Scenario Economy

Comparic Rynki 23.05.2026

? Unverifiable

"De la Spa wins. Salvadoran-style shock. Short-term strengthening of the PESO on a wave of right-wing investor enthusiasm and immediate risk of collision with the Supreme Court, Constitutional Tribunal, and Congress, i.e., political risk premium going up after the first attempts at extradition decrees. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🌐 Scenario Economy

Krzysztof Jackowski 22.05.2026

~ Partially

"There is a plan to unexpectedly attack Iran and pacify it. The plan is for a sudden, precise attack to neutralize and eliminate the entire command, the entire government of Iran. But this may not succeed. Iran will retaliate, and then there will be a huge attack on Iran. Wars will ignite, and this will lead to a crisis, including a large food crisis. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Armed conflicts 2026

Comparic Rynki 17.05.2026

✓ True

"German economic growth in 2026 is half a percent, and Poland, according to forecasts, even 3.8%. This means that we are growing 6 to seven times faster than Europe's largest economy. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

✅ Factual claim Economy

Albert Rokicki 16.05.2026

~ Partially

"And perfectly, perfectly on point here, this is happening, because this fourth quarter was already declining and the first quarter of 2026 confirms this trend. We have the second consecutive quarter of apartment price drops in these largest cities, and the bottom is predicted here by Tomek Narkun at the turn of 2029-2030. So now buying an apartment for rent is a very risky decision, because one must expect declines in these properties, and if I had to advise someone, I would tell them to wait a few years for possibly better apartment prices, to get a better return on investment, so that it wouldn't be at most 4% or 3% as it is currently in Warsaw, but for it to increase to 6-7% as it once was from renting. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

⚠️ Warning Economy 2029

Coin Bureau 16.05.2026

✗ Failed

"BlackRock has not entered this market yet, and when they do, given IBIT's 66.4% capture rate, expect them to take the lion's share of flows almost immediately. "

🔮 Forecast Technology Short timeframe

Comparic Rynki 12.05.2026

~ Partially

"SK H controls about 62% of the global HBM market. Samsung 17%, Micron 21%. Three players the entire market, and two of them are in Korea. And the scale of business according to Bank of America the HBM market in 2026 will reach over 54 billion dollars. This is an increase of nearly 60% year-on-year, and within two years 100 billion dollars. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Economy 2026

Krzysztof Jackowski 12.05.2026

✗ Failed

"An Italian city or Italian cities come to mind. Suddenly, very disturbing information will appear. Perhaps I am wrong about the country, but in some Italian city in Italy, disease outbreaks will suddenly appear that will spread very quickly. We will learn in a short time, one, in two days, that there are outbreaks of some infections among people somewhere, and within a short time, say a week or two, it will grow so much that the government will decide on some measures, a rapidly spreading virus. It seems to me that it will start in Italy. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Disasters 2026

Comparic Rynki 11.05.2026

✗ Negated

"First short-term scenario. Trump and Xi agree on Iran. Beijing pressures Tehran. Iran yields on Hormuz. Tankers move. Brent falls to around $80, maybe lower. What does this mean in practice for Poland? Inflation loses momentum. Fuel at stations gets cheaper by several dozen groszy. Electricity bills stop being so scary, at least a bit. The National Bank of Poland gets an argument to maintain interest rates or even to cut them slightly. The zloty strengthens, WIG 20 catches its breath. General relief. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🌐 Scenario Economy

Comparic Rynki 09.05.2026

~ Partially

"Demography plus misery equals export of people. 220 million Nigerians is not an abstract African problem. It's a question of what the migration map of Europe will look like in 5-10 years. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Society 2036

Comparic Rynki 07.05.2026

✗ Failed

"It is not a question of whether Poland will enter the same scenario as Germany. Unfortunately, it is a question of when it will enter, whether in 2027 or 2028. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Economy 2027

Coin Bureau 06.05.2026

✗ Negated

"If the Senate Banking Committee does not formally mark up the Clarity Act before the Memorial Day recess on May 21st, the entire framework collapses. Midterms swallow the calendar, and comprehensive crypto market structure legislation is reportedly pushed out as far back as 2030. "

🌐 Scenario Politics

Albert Rokicki 06.05.2026

✓ True

"Top 5 2183% over 13 years, I repeat, as of the end of April this year 2026. For posterity, I will emphasize here that annually it is 27%. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

✅ Factual claim Economy

Coin Bureau 04.05.2026

✗ Negated

"The practical markup window closes in mid-May. The recess begins on the 25th and after that, the midterm cycle starts swallowing every available legislative day. If the Clarity Act dies in this window, then comprehensive market structure legislation pushes deep into 2027 or beyond and the industry returns to regulation by enforcement. "

🌐 Scenario Politics

Comparic Rynki 04.05.2026

~ Partially

"Home appliances (washing machine, refrigerator, dryer), because it's not just a chip. It's also a kilo of plastic in the casing, a kilo of rubber in the seals, a kilo of aluminum in the drum. Everything three times more expensive. Itoro experts in Polish financial media are already saying directly: Smartphones, laptops, consoles, refrigerators, washing machines, everything will get more expensive in the coming months. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Economy 2026

Comparic Rynki 04.05.2026

✓ Fulfilled

"Prices of final plastic products will increase in April and May by 50 to 60%. This is a real company that produces housings, fasteners and parts for hundreds of Western brands. And now its customers, i.e. Western home appliance and electronics brands, are receiving invoices increased by half. "

🇵🇱 translated PL · original

🔮 Forecast Economy 2026