Comparic Rynki on Economy — predictions scored
142 tracked claims · Accuracy: 56%
"And above all, there is also a very interesting topic ahead of us, because from April 2026, it will be permissible to secure loans and credits with silver in India. Until now, it was only possible to secure them with gold. However, it is possible that because silver will also be allowed as such a loan collateral, there is a chance that more of this precious metal will be trapped, figuratively speaking, in the banking system in India, which will also affect the global supply of this metal. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"As long as this war continues, as long as oil prices are high, the prospect of 100% rate cuts in the States will move further away. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"I am counting on the fact that in some foreseeable future, this conflict in the Middle East will at least calm down, be brought under control, and the situation on the oil market will stabilize. Perhaps we will not return to the levels we were used to at the turn of 2025 and 2026, $50 per barrel, but we will move away from $100 and this market will become somewhat more predictable, and this will already be a factor that may slightly weigh on the valuations of the American currency and support the zloty as a result. "
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🔮 Forecast
Economy
Medium timeframe
"It seems to me that this will be a politically calmer period in the United States, and the American economy will primarily benefit from it. So, in short, this also fits into my thesis that the strength of the American economy will cause the dollar to slowly, slowly regain strength and continue to systematically gain against a basket of currencies, "
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🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"Wydaje mi się, yyy, i to jest taki mój troszeczkę scenariusz bazowy, który będzie oddziaływał na wiele walut, ale w późniejszym okresie, że banki yyy będą próbowały przetrzymać tę sytuację, że jednak wyjdą z założenia, że skok cen ropy gazu przełoży się na inflację, ale to nie będzie przełożenie trwałe, że nie będzie efektów drugiej rundy i zdecydują się przeczekać ten okres "
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🌐 Scenario
Economy
"The management's forecast for 2026 assumes a sales increase of 40 to 45%. "
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🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"Lockheed Martin, the American flagship, backlog, a record 194 billion dollars. Revenue forecast for 2026 is 77 to 80 billion. "
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🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"Issuance for 2025, a record 300 billion euros in bonds. France has to borrow more and more to service what it has already borrowed, a classic debt spiral. "
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✅ Factual claim
Economy
"In 2026, German farms may employ only 80% of that number. Calculate it, that means 65,000 fewer people, 65,000 pairs of hands that simply won't appear. Plus another regulation, which is the icing on this bitter cake. At least 10% of each crew must be German citizens. "
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✅ Factual claim
Economy
"Poland spends 4.7% of GDP on defense in 2025, which is 187 billion zlotys, or about 45 billion dollars. The target for 2026 is 5%. The Minister of Defense stated this directly in March 2025 at a meeting of EU defense ministers. "
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✅ Factual claim
Economy
"Rheinmetall forecasts sales growth of 40 to 45% in 2026. Leonardo plans to double profits by 2030. "
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🔮 Forecast
Economy
2030
"As reported by Climate Action Tracker, RWE, the largest coal operator in Germany, will likely get more operating hours from its coal blocks before 2030 from this agreement than originally planned. "
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🔮 Forecast
Economy
2030
"Germany's Public Debt, until recently exemplary in Europe, has a chance to reach 85% of GDP by 2035. New debt in 2026 will exceed 180 billion euros, over 4% of GDP. The budget deficit will reach almost 5%. "
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🔮 Forecast
Economy
2035
"Merc wants to reach 3.5% of GDP for defense by 2029. This would mean about 162 billion euros annually. "
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🔮 Forecast
Economy
2029
"TD Securities calculates that by the end of April, markets will lose a total of one billion barrels, 600 million of crude oil and 350 million of refined products. This is not something you fix with a two-week truce. "
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🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"This means that gold will end the year higher than it is now. That's my assumption. But this assumption is based on Kevin Warsh or another Trump nominee, very keen on cutting rates, taking the Fed chair, and the dollar weakening. "
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🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"Some weaker farms may give up production or limit the use of fertilizers, which will reduce yields. Lower supply with unchanged demand automatically leads to price increases. Prices of nitrogen fertilizers, mainly used in spring, increased from approx. 330 to over 500 euros per tonne, which may affect the size and quality of harvests. "
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🔮 Forecast
Economy
Short timeframe
"Bank of America published a forecast: slower growth, higher inflation and oil at $100 per barrel for the rest of 2026. Eurozone inflation jumped from 1.9 to 2.5 in March. In the US, forecasts for summer spoke of 5%. Now, after a slight drop in oil, analysts revised this to around 3%. But this is still above the Fed's target. "
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🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"Goldman Sachs raised its price forecast for the end of 2026 to $5400 per ounce. "
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💰 Price target
Economy
2026
"Goldman Sachs warns that the implementation of the ambitious defense budget may not keep up with the plan. They predict that actual spending will be around 109 billion euros this year, 10 billion less than the budget assumed. bureaucracy, lack of skilled workers, internal coalition friction. But even with these limitations, the direction is clear. Europe is arming itself, and Germany is at the forefront of this race for the first time in 80 years. "
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⚠️ Warning
Economy
2026
"However, in my opinion, this direction starts to make sense at the moment when we have this conflict somehow closed or suspended. Rather permanently. "
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PL · original
🌐 Scenario
Economy
"Indonesia, which has so far extracted Cobalt as a byproduct of Nickel, is expected to increase supply by nearly 150% in 2026. "
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🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"Sugar tax. The fixed part increased by 40%, the variable part doubled. "
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✅ Factual claim
Economy
"In a country where inflation in 2026 is expected to reach around 3%, this is simply a freeze of real wages, and in fact a silent reduction. "
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PL · original
✅ Factual claim
Economy
"Chinese exports to Russia in March indeed fell by nearly 16% year-on-year. The effect of new American sanctions on Russian banks from December. But Beijing will restore this exchange after today's meeting. "
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🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"The Polish prosecution is now waiting for the US court's decision on the extradition of P. "
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✅ Factual claim
Economy
"over $17 billion annually in purchases of American food by 2028. This is more than nothing, but for US agriculture, which has been cut off from the Chinese market for years due to the trade war, it's just a drip feed, not a breakthrough. "
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PL · original
✅ Factual claim
Economy
"Chinese exports to Russia in March indeed fell by nearly 16% year-on-year. This is an effect of new American sanctions on Russian banks from December, but Beijing will restore this exchange after today's meeting. "
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🔮 Forecast
Economy
Short timeframe
"Gentlemen, you have personally convinced me that in the medium term, say, two years, agricultural commodities should gain. But we are talking about soybeans, corn, wheat here, how could an investor utilize this relatively simply. "
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PL · original
🔮 Forecast
Economy
2028
"Okay, so we know that we certainly won't eliminate oil, but everything you've mentioned contributes to the fact that this 'y' percentage of use for fuels will slightly decrease, so it is, in the long term, something that lowers the price. "
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🔮 Forecast
Economy
Long timeframe
"Energy-intensive industries are fleeing, and the new boom, which is AI data centers that need megawatts of electricity at a reasonable price, well, they are going elsewhere, certainly not to Berlin. "
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💬 Opinion
Economy
"I don't see any possibility at the moment that any macro data would lead to sharp movements on the stock exchanges. I don't see it. "
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💬 Opinion
Economy
"Therefore, undoubtedly, food will get more expensive in the second half of the year. How much? I don't know. I am not a specialist in this field, so I won't pretend to be wise, but it looks like it will be more expensive. Significantly more expensive? Hard to say. I said, I don't know. "
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🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"Plan for another 100 by the end of June. These are just suppliers of the Swedish giant. "
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🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"In January, probably 2027, an Oki account, i.e., a personal investment account, will also be created, and there, up to PLN 100,000, we will also be exempt from tax. It is worth remembering this. It is worth saving on these taxes. If you want to invest, the choice of IKE and X I XE as the first one should absolutely be the basis. "
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🔮 Forecast
Economy
2027
"Asian suppliers may become selective towards clients. They will choose stable, large, predictable ones. Smaller ones must look elsewhere or simply pay much more for the same. "
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🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"Let's talk about the economy in three, four months, when we actually feel how the change in prices, the change in availability of fertilizers, availability of fuels, availability of gas will start to affect us. But I think it's reasonable to secure oneself. "
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🔮 Forecast
Economy
2026
"Budget 2027 has a 30 billion euro hole. PIT reform announced for January 2027, but no one knows what it will contain yet. "
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✅ Factual claim
Economy
"Insider trading on bets about whether we will overthrow a dictator. Until now, no one knew if it was punishable at all. Now Vanije will test it for everyone. "
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🔮 Forecast
Economy
Short timeframe
"The International Energy Agency estimates that by 2040, the demand for key metals in the clean energy sector will increase by as much as four times. "
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✅ Factual claim
Economy