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Graham Stephan on Economy — predictions scored

Graham Stephan on Economy — predictions scored

55 tracked claims · Accuracy: 70%

G
Graham Stephan 02.02.2026
True
"Every single year, without fail, the stock market drops. Like, take a look at this. Even in years where the market finished higher, we saw 10 to sometimes 20% declines. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 02.02.2026
True
"Kevin Worsh served as the Fed governor from 2006 to 2011 during the Great Financial Crisis while the Fed was creating government bailouts, market back stops, and essentially trying to keep the entire financial system from falling apart. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 02.02.2026
True
"From there in 2011, despite Kevin War saying that stimulus wasn't needed, the Federal Reserve announced an additional $600 billion injection into the economy to help the housing market. But Kevin Wars was a very fierce opponent, calling the benefits small and fleeting and the risks potentially large. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 02.02.2026
! Misleading
"In fact, just a month before the presidential election, Kevin Worsh was asked what he would do if he became the chair of the Federal Reserve. And he said the policies that are good for asset holders are bad for those living paycheck to paycheck and that we're basically enriching stockholders at the expense of everyday Americans. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 02.02.2026
True
"It's also not unusual for February to be one of the worst months of the year for stocks with being on average negative since the 1950s. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 02.02.2026
True
"From there, when he was asked if the stock market would have to fall, he responded with, "If the central bank were forced to focus on the real economy, the financial markets will take care of itself." Implying that yes, the markets will fall, but long term it'll be for the greater good of society since the rich won't just keep getting richer. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 01.02.2026
True
"The average person spends like 25 to 33% of their income to housing. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 28.01.2026
Failed
"However, starting May of 2026, everything is going to completely reset. After all, it's apparent that the market's no longer reacting to today's Federal Reserve. It's reacting to who will be in charge throughout the second half of the year. And this has the potential to reshape the way we think about stocks, cryptocurrency, real estate, and even the value of our money. "
🔮 Forecast Economy 2026
G
Graham Stephan 28.01.2026
Fulfilled
"That's why objectively any boost to housing affordability is likely going to be minor or temporary at best. Unless, of course, we see a massive housing market bailout, which at this point, I'm going to be honest, nothing surprises me anymore. "
🔮 Forecast Economy 2026
G
Graham Stephan 28.01.2026
Failed
"That's why I have a feeling these next few months are probably going to be more of the same until Jerome Powell leaves in May, at which point the entire market could suddenly flip. "
🔮 Forecast Economy 2026
G
Graham Stephan 28.01.2026
~ Partially
"Right now, there's a lot of tension between Europe and the US dollar. Tariff threats get thrown around on a seemingly daily basis. And eventually, if one of them sticks, the markets could see a rather abrupt sell-off, at least temporary. "
🌐 Scenario Economy
G
Graham Stephan 28.01.2026
~ Partially
"Either way, Jerome Powell's current term comes to an end in May of 2026. And after that, we're likely going to see some pretty significant changes across everything, including first the stock market. "
🔮 Forecast Economy 2026
G
Graham Stephan 20.01.2026
Pending
"Starting February 1st, brand new tariffs are set to go into effect across Europe. All because the United States wants to acquire a country that most people didn't expect, Greenland. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 05.01.2026
Pending
"So now with prices at all-time highs, instead of buying more, I've made the decision to start selling everything off. "
📈 Recommendation Economy
G
Graham Stephan 28.01.2026
Pending
"That's why I think we're likely going to see a lot more of the same throughout 2026, unless of course mortgage rates come down dramatically or they pass some rather large tax incentives. "
🔮 Forecast Economy 2026

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