Skip to content
Verdiktum

Graham Stephan on Economy — predictions scored

Graham Stephan on Economy — predictions scored

55 tracked claims · Accuracy: 70%

G
Graham Stephan 23.02.2026
? Unverifiable
"In the first 3 months of 2020, Robinhood users traded nine times as many shares as E*TRADE customers and 40 times as many shares as Charles Schwab customers. They also bought and sold 88 times as many options contracts relative to the average account size. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 23.02.2026
True
"To give you these exact numbers, 70% of Polymarket traders lost money, while only 0.04% captured 70% of the profits. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 22.02.2026
True
"The US national debt is currently sitting at roughly $ 38.7 trillion. It's growing by approximately $8 billion every single day. And interest payments have now surpassed a trillion dollars a year. Meaning we are now paying more in interest than we are on our entire national defense. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 02.02.2026
! Misleading
"So far, studies show that despite market volatility, risks, and uncertainty, you have a 62% chance of being positive after a month, a 75% chance of being profitable after a year, 89% after 5 years, 95% after 10 years, and 99.8% 8% after 15 years. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 12.01.2026
Fulfilled
"This car weighs more than $6,000, which means that I'd be able to buy this car for $23,000, use it 100% for business use, write off the entire cost of the car against my taxes in a 37% tax bracket, and my net cost at the end of the year comes out to just $14,490 out of pocket. "
🌐 Scenario Economy
G
Graham Stephan 08.01.2026
Pending
"Look, the reality is, if this were to pass, I'll tell you exactly what's going to happen. Rental prices are going to go up because there's less rental inventory. Home prices might also begin to go up because there's less incentive to build houses in bulk, and nothing is going to be done to improve home affordability, even though on paper it's getting a lot of praise. "
🔮 Forecast Economy 2026
G
Graham Stephan 21.05.2026
· Unverified
"Third, housing stays frozen. Keep in mind that mortgage rates are already hitting multi-deade highs. Worsh's plan to reduce the Fed's balance sheet includes selling off the mortgage back securities, which are literally the assets that back home loans. So, for anyone waiting for housing to get more affordable, you might be waiting a little longer. "
🔮 Forecast Economy 2027
G
Graham Stephan 23.02.2026
True
"For every $1 a household spent on betting, it put $2 less into investment accounts with net investments falling by 14%. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 23.02.2026
· Unverified
"Insider trading laws primarily apply to stocks and securities, which are regulated by the SEC. But prediction markets are classified as derivatives and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. For this, insider trading is classified as a breach of duty, like a worker stealing company secrets. But the bar is incredibly high to convict. So, for the most part, a lot of people just get away with it. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 12.02.2026
True
"The average payments right now are over $700 a month and a record number of payments are now over $1,000 a month. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 09.02.2026
Pending
"The next 5 years could represent the last realistic window for the average person to get ahead. And finally, what you could do starting today to avoid getting left behind. Because if you wait to react, you're not just going to be late, you're going to be completely priced out. "
⚠️ Warning Economy 2031
G
Graham Stephan 09.02.2026
Pending
"We are moving into an economy where productivity no longer guarantees prosperity. We're working hard doesn't necessarily get you further and where the biggest returns are going towards those who already have ownership and not those who rely on wages, promotions, and waiting for affordability to come back. "
🔮 Forecast Economy 2031
G
Graham Stephan 09.02.2026
Fulfilled
"We are now at a critical point where AI no longer replaces wealth, it amplifies it. So if you own stocks, real estate or a business, AI becomes leverage. But if you rely on wages, then AI becomes competition. "
💬 Opinion Economy
G
Graham Stephan 06.02.2026
~ Partially
"However, when our dollar becomes weak, it encourages other countries to buy from the United States because we appear cheaper. It pushes stock prices higher and it makes the government's massive debt easier to deal with over "
🌐 Scenario Economy
G
Graham Stephan 02.02.2026
True
"Since 1980, the average S&P 500 intra-ear drawd down is 14.1%. And in 34 of those 45 years, the S&P 500 has finished with positive returns. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 02.02.2026
! Misleading
"If you go all the way back to 1950, you could see that only two years closed the year down more than 25% and only 3 years closed the year down between 15 to 25%. the rest of the time barely lost anything or more commonly ended up making you a lot of money. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 02.02.2026
True
"Plus, if you want to feel better about investing during a time like this, the average time to recovery from a 5 to 10% draw down is 3 months and the average time to recovery from a 10 to 20% correction is 8 months. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 02.02.2026
! Misleading
"For instance, Worsh is now pushing for lower rates to spark growth. He recently said that we could lower interest rates a lot and in doing so get 30-year fixed rate mortgages so that they're affordable and get the housing market going again. And in 2026, he sees himself as an ally to the White House. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 02.02.2026
True
"Historically, when January is up between 0 to 2%, the next 11 months have been lower only once in history. And usually, when January is green, the rest of the year ends up an average of 16.9% higher. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 02.02.2026
~ Partially
"But now Kevin Worsh is expected to come in and crash the economy to save the US dollar, print a lot less money, reduce the Fed's balance sheet, and prevent the United States from becoming another statistic in Ray Dalia's New World Order. "
🔮 Forecast Economy 2026
G
Graham Stephan 02.02.2026
True
"In a very surprising turn of events, Trump just confirmed that Jerome Powell will soon be replaced as the head of the Federal Reserve. And the person who he appointed is not who the markets were expecting. In fact, immediately after the announcement, stocks started selling off. Gold and silver saw their biggest drop ever in history. And now the idea of easy money is completely disappearing because Trump's new leadership completely changed the rules of the game overnight. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 29.01.2026
! Misleading
"Top 500 largest publicly traded stocks in the US. That encompasses everything from Tesla, Apple, Amazon. They have a review committee and there are requirements that must be met in order to be within the S&P. And what happens is that as other companies come up, they'll eventually replace those. And I think that review committee meets every quarter. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 28.01.2026
~ Partially
"If rates stay higher for longer, cash earns more, debt becomes more expensive, housing stays sluggish, and the market remains volatile. But if rates drop aggressively in 2026, then the stock market could keep going higher, precious metals and crypto could go crazy, housing could rebound, and we could see another latestage meltup. "
🌐 Scenario Economy
G
Graham Stephan 20.01.2026
True
"At the time I'm filming this video, gold has jumped to an all-time high of more than $4,700 an ounce. Silver followed closely behind at nearly $100 an ounce. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 20.01.2026
True
"Greenland currently holds one of the largest untapped reserves of rare earth minerals in the world and that's needed to make everything like electric vehicles, AI chips and advanced electronics. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 20.01.2026
! Misleading
"He presented a 10% import tax that would soon be going into effect for Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 20.01.2026
Negated
"If an agreement isn't reached by June 1st for the acquisition or purchase of Greenland, the tariff would increase from 10% all the way to 25%. "
🌐 Scenario Economy
G
Graham Stephan 17.01.2026
Fulfilled
"If this were to pass, rental prices are going to go up because there's less rental inventory. Home prices might also begin to go up because there's less incentive to build houses in bulk. then nothing is going to be done to improve home affordability. "
🌐 Scenario Economy
G
Graham Stephan 13.01.2026
True
"I've started to sell off all my real estate this year. I'm in the process of listing another one in a few months, and by the end of the year, it's my goal to have all but one remaining property. Not because I think the market's going to crash, but because we are entering what Red Fin is calling the great housing reset. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 12.01.2026
True
"I just bought the cheapest 2020 Tesla Model X in the entire country for a net cost of just $14,490. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 08.01.2026
~ Partially
"After all, once you dig into the details, this could actually wind up increasing home prices. It could reduce supply even further, and it could hurt the people it was intended to protect. "
⚠️ Warning Economy 2026
G
Graham Stephan 05.01.2026
True
"monthly payments have more than doubled in the last 5 years. Some areas are seeing rather large price drops while others continue seeing non-stop gains. And throughout most of the United States, it's actually cheaper to rent than buy. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 05.01.2026
True
"Over a 20-year time frame, the S&P 500 has never once produced a negative result so far. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 05.01.2026
! Misleading
"This is the first time in years that the Federal Reserve started printing more money. Insiders are currently selling off their stocks at the fastest level since 2021. And by almost all metrics, nearly every single asset is trading at its most expensive price ever in history. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 05.01.2026
True
"gold passing $4,300 an ounce, silver hitting almost $70, and platinum reaching 2,000. In fact, a lot of you have been asking for me to make an entire video dedicated to silver. So, here's what I have to say about it. In terms of silver, it is driven by fundamentals. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 15.02.2026
Fulfilled
"Rent control only benefits people who get in early, regardless of how much money they make. "
💬 Opinion Economy
G
Graham Stephan 09.02.2026
True
"The rules of how people build wealth are already changing extremely quickly. And the easy way of going to college, getting a good job, and buying a house is getting more and more difficult each and every day relative to the advantages that AI gives to capital and top performers. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 06.02.2026
Fulfilled
"Trump wants the dollar to lose purchasing power. Because when our dollar is strong, other countries need to pay more to buy American goods. Our products become a little bit less competitive. And when our money buys more overseas, it encourages people to shop outside of the country. "
🌐 Scenario Economy
G
Graham Stephan 02.02.2026
! Misleading
"But do keep in mind though, as a counterargument to that, in 2007, Kevin Worsh did say that everything was fine. Credit risks are non-existent. Banks are doing great. One year before everything came crashing down. "
✅ Factual claim Economy
G
Graham Stephan 02.02.2026
True
"Every single year, without fail, the stock market drops. Like, take a look at this. Even in years where the market finished higher, we saw 10 to sometimes 20% declines. "
✅ Factual claim Economy

Explore other topics