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If the probability of life arising on one planet is extremely small, then the ex...

Piotr Kosek: "If the probability of life arising on one planet is extremely small, then the expected number of civilizations in the entire universe is zer..." — Fulfilled

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📅 04.01.2026 · Matematyka mówi, że obcy muszą istnieć? - AstroSzort · 👁️ 13

Fulfilled. Piotr Kosek's claim is confirmed. If the probability of life arising (fl in the Drake Equation) is extremely small, then the expected number of civilizations in the entire universe, according to the Drake Equation model...

"If the probability of life arising on one planet is extremely small, then the expected number of civilizations in the entire universe is zero. We essentially have an empty cosmos." "Jeśli prawdopodobieństwo powstania życia na jednej planecie jest ekstremalnie małe, no to oczekiwana liczba cywilizacji w całym wszechświecie wynosi zero. Mamy właściwie pusty kosmos."
🌐 (Machine-translated — original in Polish) · Original in Polishuage
🌐 Scenario 🔹 Other AI assessment confidence: 90% Resolves by: 2031 🌐 Jeśli prawdopodobieństwo powstania życia na jednej planecie... Assertiveness: high Source on YouTube

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Transcript excerpt

Oryginał w języku Polskim Open on YouTube

my tu o liczbie rzędu 10 do potęgi 24, czyli jedynka i 24 zera. Więc niewyobrażalna liczba scen, na których może rozegrać się dramat pod tytułem życie. No i teraz zakładając na to statystykę dostajemy wynik, który właściwie nas powinien zszokować, bo z matematycznego punktu widzenia spodziewana liczba cywilizacji zachowuje się bardzo specyficznie. Jeśli prawdopodobieństwo powstania życia na jednej planecie jest ekstremalnie małe, no to oczekiwana liczba cywilizacji w całym wszechświecie wynosi zero. Mamy właściwie pusty kosmos. No i tutaj w sumie żadnego zaskoczenia. No tak to powinno z tych obliczeń wyjść. Z kolei jeśli to prawdopodobieństwo jest wystarczająco duże, no to wszechświat powinien być pełen życia. No i tu też bez niespodzianek jakby jest to logiczne. Jedno wynika z drugiego. Szokujące jest za to co dzieje się pomiędzy. Przejście między stanem pusty wszechświ

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