"My guess is in the back half of this year especially kind of late Q3 early Q4 you'll see the stock market show weakness and that might get the Fed to pivot on some of their views. But until that happens, the entire industry is stuck because as long as the AI trade keeps working, there's no reason to cut rates."

"My best guess is that Bitcoin sets a low in June and then has a counter trend rally and then has another low in October. I would argue that there is a high likelihood that the October low would be lower than the June low. "

"if the stock market does what it always does in midterm years, you'll likely see a correction by stocks in the second half of this year. That would likely correspond to SpaceX coming back down some and that potentially setting up a pretty good opportunity for the next several years. "

"If you look at 2018, you can see it started in September. The S&P M2 factor would actually correspond to September. And you know, if that is the case, we know that Bitcoin, well we don't know, but I think Bitcoin might bottom in October. And so if the stock market were to top in September, then maybe Bitcoin would bottom out pretty quickly just because it would react to whatever the stock market's reacting to a lot quicker because it's just further up the risk curve. It would get hit a lot quicker than the stock market and potentially Bitcoin then finds that low sometime in the fourth quarter. Maybe as early as as October. "

"So, we have now seen them cross. And you know, usually when they cross, the low's not immediately in like that's never happened before. I'm not saying it can't, but it's never happened before. Usually the month though, usually the low occurs within about one to three to like one to four months. Okay. So that could be anywhere between say like now and July, August, September, October, who knew, right? "