Benjamin Cowen (Into the Cryptoverse) on Economy — predictions scored

"I mean, I think Bitcoin's going to keep bleeding against both the stock market and gold and energy and manufacturing. This is what it does in mid-term years. It's not like in this case is not different this time. It's actually this is how it always plays out. The only the only thing is different this time is there wasn't a blow-off top. So, we you know, not we like we weren't really coming off that euphoric feeling. And I think a lot of times when you have a euphoria at the end of a cycle, that euphoria can take like five or six months mentally to kind of die out. "

"I mean, I I think that ignoring crypto for the first half of the mid-term year is usually the right move. And then the second half, you start to look for good deals kind of in preparation for the next market cycle. "

"I think I think Bitcoin would probably bottom I I'd say there's a good chance Bitcoin would bottom before the recession is announced. Um like on average, the stock market bottoms like 15 day If you look at like last six or seven recessions, uh the stock market has bottomed like 15 days before the recession is declared. And I think that Bitcoin would probably bottom earlier than that because it's further, you know, it's further up the risk curve. It tends to price things in a lot quicker. "

"If you look at the S&P M2 fractal, the next larger drop likely won't start until the third quarter of the year. So, what I could see happening is this. I can see a smaller drop happening in the summer and then a rebound and then a larger drop happening as we get later on into Q3 going into early Q4. And then after that, you might see a rebound once again. "

"I think Bitcoin's going to continue to underperform the S&P 500 for at least a few more months, and then probably start to outperform again, hopefully next year. "

"If Bitcoin were to return to 60k with the ETH Bitcoin ratio in a downtrend you could have Ethereum going down here to the April 2025 low while Bitcoin could still be around 60k. "

"In the short term in the short term, Ethereum will likely head back down to those April 2025 lows, which happens to correspond to the lower part of the regression band. "

"I think the next move for Ethereum is to come down here to the lows of April of 2025. That would correspond to the ETH Bitcoin valuation coming back down as well, maybe back down to where it was in June of 2025. "

"Why? Because every year there's a few altcoins that outperform and then the next year no one remembers that they did anything the year before, right? We We saw Solana outperform in 2023, we saw XRP 2024, Ethereum in early 2025. Now it's kind of moved over to some of the privacy stuff and whatnot, but the point is is uh you know, there's a good chance they will eventually bleed to Bitcoin and one of the things that historically has caused that is tighter monetary policy. "

"The reason dominance excluding stables is going up is because the dominance including stables is only being suppressed by stablecoin dominance going up so much, which is why when Bitcoin gets to the next bull market, Bitcoin dominance will likely go even higher as stablecoins uh reserve as people sort of leave stablecoins and flock back into Bitcoin first, because as we know, Bitcoin leads the bull market, not altcoins. "

"If the Clarity Act gets passed, I can see a lift in the market. And obviously, you know, if we're talking about Bitcoin in particular, Bitcoin seems to be moving with stocks at the moment, it seems to be reacting, to headlines around Iran and things like that in in the same way. So I can see Bitcoin kind of tracking the the the S&P 500 more closely. But for the rest of the crypto market, I think it's going to be I think it's going to be pretty tough even with the Clarity Act passing. "

"So I mean, unless you're going into a recession right now, there's a really good chance that you'll see energy stocks come back. "

"I'm going to keep following time-based capitulation, which would entail Bitcoin finding a low probably sometime later this year. It could be October would be my base case, but I it's not like it can't be plus or minus sometime around that. And I think as an investor, it makes sense to pivot if the market does something that you're not expecting. "

"historically within about 1 to four months of crossing, Bitcoin finds the low for the market cycle, the market cycle bottom, if you will, from which point we would measure the next cycle's returns from that point. "

"So my guess is we'll likely spend, you know, some time with these metrics crossed over each other like they are right now, but probably only a few months and and then once we get out into say 2027, 2028, hopefully we'll see uh the cycle continue. "

"But, I do think that we'll likely still spend the rest of this year below that sort of that fair value logarithmic regression trend line, which as always is a monotonically increasing function. And then hopefully uh maybe the year after, hopefully we're back in in business. "

"My guess, dubious speculation, is that July would likely be a green month. What's difficult to know right now is, you know, is that low in or not? "

"Maybe look for a low for Bitcoin uh in June and then a rally out of it into July, perhaps into August, and then we wrestle with, "Okay, the reason why Bitcoin might not have a final bottom in June is because oftentimes in the second half of the year, the stock market gets a correction, and it's the stock market dropping that then makes Bitcoin go down and and find its market cycle bottom." "

"So, if Bitcoin holds the 200-week moving average for the rest of June, then you'll likely see some type of counter-trend rally going into early July. "

"I would say in about, you know, in about 3 weeks or so, I would start to look for a sort of a brief window of strength to open up in July. So, right now, the weak the sort of that weakness is open. Look for a brief change in July, and then we will have a lot of debates in August, July, August time frame as to whether we get, you know, another drop into the fourth quarter of of the year. "

"I would say if if we're still holding it by the end of June, then I would say, all right, look for a rally off of it in July. But for now, there's still a window of weakness open. I would say for at least the next couple of weeks or so. "

"If the low simply forms at 60, then or even 58, then you you would have you would likely have a counter-trend rally, but it would only last a month or two, more than likely. "

"I think the floor for the year would be the 30 to 40K range. And that would be like a worst-case scenario type thing. Doesn't have to go there by any stretch of the imagination. "

"My guess is what will happen is that we'll likely see Bitcoin settle low, probably as I've said before, um a late night in the middle of June, my guess, and and that what will happen after that is you'll see Bitcoin kind of drift back up into July, maybe going into August. "

"So, I think you got to be open-minded to that being the low in October. "

"I think by the end of the year if if you truly if the four-year cycle plays out and and you get all this money from the IPOs yeah, you get sort of like a a post-IPO hangover in stocks then I think a lot of that money might then maybe find its way back over to Bitcoin. "

"I think gold might find a low sometime the next month or two before then trending back up. "

"The window of weakness will likely persist for a few more weeks, probably into June, mid to late June seems about right. And if that happens, then I would be looking for a countertrend rally potentially in July. Again, these are not tradeable ideas. I'm not saying go trade this idea. I'm just saying what I think is the path to the actual low. "

"I still do think we will likely see Bitcoin head back down as the year goes on. "