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Leszek Sykulski on Armed conflicts — predictions scored

Leszek Sykulski on Armed conflicts — predictions scored

78 tracked claims · Accuracy: 85%

Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 14.02.2026
Pending
"an agreement with Iran will be very difficult, meaning it will be very difficult to reach an agreement with Iran. This is a very clear diplomatic signal between the lines, meaning that Europe should also prepare for the possible consequences of a larger regional conflict in the Middle East. "
translated PL · original
⚠️ Warning Armed Conflicts 2026
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 20.01.2026
True
"On January 18, 2026, the Iraqi government announced that the United States armed forces had completed their full withdrawal from military bases in the country's territory directly under Baghdad's authority. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 19.01.2026
Pending
"In the near future, the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group with eight air squadrons is expected to arrive in the Persian Gulf region. This team is also supported by the guided-missile cruiser USS Mobile Bay and one of the destroyers, which has a large number of missile launchers. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 19.01.2026
Pending
"A hot conflict, a normal kinetic war between the United States and Denmark, which could be supported by Germany, France, or other countries, would lead to the disintegration of the North Atlantic Alliance. "
translated PL · original
🌐 Scenario Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 16.01.2026
Pending
"One of Russia's goals, if this war continues, if it prolongs, will be the occupation of Odesa, the occupation of the historical land of Yedisan, following the geopolitical footsteps of Empress Catherine II and cutting off Ukraine from the sea, from the Black Sea. "
translated PL · original
🔮 Forecast Armed Conflicts 2031
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 12.01.2026
Fulfilled
"American bases, American embassies, logistical centers, corporate assets, so to speak, of American companies would become targets of attacks. Not only from Iran, of course, from the Yemeni Houthis, from Hezbollah, from other operational assets of Iranian intelligence and Shiite organizations in the region and not only in the Middle East region. "
translated PL · original
🌐 Scenario Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 09.01.2026
Pending
"Donald Trump, as I already told you in one of the previous episodes of the geopolitical podcast, decided to bomb seven countries within the first year of his current term. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 09.01.2026
True
"Today, one of Israel's most important goals is the destruction, defragmentation of the so-called Shiite axis of resistance, meaning striking both Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Yemeni Houthis, but also, so to speak, gaining a foothold in the Gulf of Aden near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 09.01.2026
True
"We have the recognition of Somaliland by Israel on December 26 last year. Preparing for the second phase of the war. The war with Iran. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 08.01.2026
Fulfilled
"Americans are gathering air forces and preparing, according to Iranian media, for the second phase of the war, the war with Iran. "
translated PL · original
🔮 Forecast Armed Conflicts 2026
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 08.01.2026
Pending
"one should expect that tension will increase in the region. Let's remember that Saudi Arabia, in response to Israel's actions, concluded a military pact last year with Pakistan, a nuclear-armed state. "
translated PL · original
🔮 Forecast Armed Conflicts 2026
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 08.01.2026
Fulfilled
"both Israeli services and American services. I mean, of course, intelligence services will try to prepare the ground for another strike on Iran. this time a much, much better groundwork than what we saw in June. "
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🔮 Forecast Armed Conflicts 2026
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 07.01.2026
True
"“Following a ceasefire, the UK and France will establish military hubs across Ukraine,” said Starmer. Macron made it clear that the goal of the force would be “to provide reassurance after the ceasefire” and noted it would be stationed “a long way behind the contact line”. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 03.01.2026
True
"American armed forces carried out such, one might say, very precise strikes, among others in Fortuna, in Caracas, where the Venezuelan Ministry of Defense is located, or in La Carlota air base. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 04.03.2026
True
"Well, it's clear that the Americans have encountered serious difficulties. The fifth topic is Donald Trump's statement about insurance guarantees for various carriers, actually for all carriers providing their services in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US Navy providing security guarantees for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 04.03.2026
True
"On March 3 of this year, the White House published the official goals of Operation Epic Fury, i.e., aggression against the Islamic Republic of Iran. And here I will allow myself to quote to you the translation into Polish of these four goals. Goal number 1, the destruction of missile potential and the complete destruction of missile production potential. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 01.03.2026
Fulfilled
"Iran first fires these outdated missiles, these weak drones, so as to recognize air defense systems, so that these air defense systems are also systematically overloaded. "
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💬 Opinion Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 18.02.2026
Pending
"the course of USS Gerald Ford, the largest American aircraft carrier, which was directed to the Middle East. This is already the second carrier group. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 18.02.2026
Pending
"Israel is already preparing for the outbreak of war, and at the same time, the authorities, Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition, are said to be advocating for the so-called maximum option. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 17.02.2026
True
"Whether Jordan, or Saudi Arabia, or the United Arab Emirates, they will not want to make their airspace available for an attack on Iran. Such declarations have already been made. These countries fear retaliation, missile retaliation from Iran. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 14.02.2026
Pending
"the force option must be taken into account as one of the possible scenarios for the coming weeks, for the coming months. "
translated PL · original
🔮 Forecast Armed Conflicts 2026
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 14.02.2026
True
"Iran also has the capabilities to destabilize the situation in the region, in Iraq and in other countries. After what we observed in June 2025, we know that Iran has the capabilities, in terms of ballistic missiles, to inflict serious serious damage on the state of Israel. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 14.02.2026
Pending
"American nuclear umbrella, yes? However, such a conventional American presence will be limited. "
translated PL · original
🔮 Forecast Armed Conflicts 2026
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 14.02.2026
! Misleading
"the Polish army is supposed to order this equipment by May of this year, and later officials in Brussels are to decide which defense sectors these funds will go to. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 14.02.2026
Fulfilled
"the American military may attack not only Iran's nuclear infrastructure, i.e., the civilian program that Iran currently possesses, but also critical infrastructure and Iranian state facilities, security institutions, as well as carry out acts, so-called decapitation acts, on representatives of the Iranian state. "
translated PL · original
🌐 Scenario Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 14.02.2026
True
"American or American-Israeli expectations or demands have increased, because it is no longer solely about the Islamic Republic of Iran renouncing nuclear weapons. It is about the complete renunciation of the ballistic missile program. Y, which means that a sovereign, independent state is being tried to dictate what armament it can have and what it cannot. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 14.01.2026
Fulfilled
"The United States cannot afford a long-term war. Therefore, I want to carry out such precise surgical operations, whether in the context of Latin America, or in the context of Greenland, we are talking about the Arctic, or in the context of the Middle East in the first part of this year. "
translated PL · original
💬 Opinion Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 12.01.2026
True
"Donald Trump already has concrete plans on his desk for a renewed attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 08.01.2026
True
"Iranian media are already reporting that in the past few hours, dozens of US Air Force aerial tankers and C5 and C17 transport aircraft have moved towards the Middle East. This also resembles preparations for bombing Iran on June 22, 2025. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 08.01.2026
True
"Israel consistently tries to break up the so-called Shiite axis of resistance. It tries to neutralize both Hamas and Hezbollah, but also acts against Yemen. Qatar was even bombed last year. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 07.01.2026
True
"The United States is starting to engage much more strongly in various security guarantees. There is talk of tightening military cooperation with Ukraine. There is talk of tightening intelligence, logistical, and so on cooperation. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 07.01.2026
True
"Poland will carry out all tasks in the field of logistics to support Ukraine, it will be the leading state in this area. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 05.01.2026
True
"The most radical solution is to cut Ukraine off from the sea, then piracy will be impossible in principle. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 05.01.2026
True
"I am leaving my post as head of the Security Service. I will stay in the system to carry out operations that continue to inflict maximum damage on the enemy. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 05.01.2026
True
"„Previously, we hit the Crimean Bridge twice – in 2022 and 2023. Today, we continued this tradition underwater. There is no place for any illegal objects of the Russian Federation on the territory of our state," Maliuk stated. „Maritime surface drones are a unique development of the SSU. No private companies are involved in this development.” "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 14.02.2026
True
"The United States, despite this limitation of its forward presence in the Middle East, still maintains bases there. I mentioned Qatar. But one must also mention Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, or even Turkey. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 20.01.2026
True
"American soldiers still remain in the autonomous region of Kurdistan at Harir airbase in Erbil province. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Leszek Sykulski Leszek Sykulski 03.01.2026
True
"Venezuelan authorities reported casualties among both soldiers and civilians. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts

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