Benjamin Cowen (Into the Cryptoverse) on Economy — predictions scored

"if the stock market does what it always does in midterm years, you'll likely see a correction by stocks in the second half of this year. That would likely correspond to SpaceX coming back down some and that potentially setting up a pretty good opportunity for the next several years. "

"So, we have now seen them cross. And you know, usually when they cross, the low's not immediately in like that's never happened before. I'm not saying it can't, but it's never happened before. Usually the month though, usually the low occurs within about one to three to like one to four months. Okay. So that could be anywhere between say like now and July, August, September, October, who knew, right? "

"My best guess is that Bitcoin sets a low in June and then has a counter trend rally and then has another low in October. I would argue that there is a high likelihood that the October low would be lower than the June low. "

"My guess is that a low will form in June. You will get a counter trend rally in July that may persist into August. And then a correction in the stock market will cause Bitcoin to form its market cycle bottom in Q4. "

"I have to think right now that the next low likely forms in June. And there probably will be a rally kind of like early Q3, July August which would then set up the final drop into sort of the September, October timeframe. And if that plays out, and we're sitting here in Q4, and Bitcoin is is is trading at a low price, I have a feeling there's going to be a lot of people that are bullish now that are going to be bearish then. But, that'll probably be the time to pivot. "

"And then once you get to the summer especially kind of after the drop going into the summer that's when you start to you know, start to get interested in Bitcoin. Um So, think about the July, August, September time frame. Knowing that if you buy then, there still could be one last drop, right? Like there was one last drop in 2022, the FTX collapse we had in Q4. There was one last drop in 2018 that we that started in November. There's also one last drop in 2014 that actually bled into the very beginning of 2015. "

"If you look at 2018, you can see it started in September. The S&P M2 factor would actually correspond to September. And you know, if that is the case, we know that Bitcoin, well we don't know, but I think Bitcoin might bottom in October. And so if the stock market were to top in September, then maybe Bitcoin would bottom out pretty quickly just because it would react to whatever the stock market's reacting to a lot quicker because it's just further up the risk curve. It would get hit a lot quicker than the stock market and potentially Bitcoin then finds that low sometime in the fourth quarter. Maybe as early as as October. "

"My guess is in the back half of this year especially kind of late Q3 early Q4 you'll see the stock market show weakness and that might get the Fed to pivot on some of their views. But until that happens, the entire industry is stuck because as long as the AI trade keeps working, there's no reason to cut rates. "

"And if it continues to head higher, it it's going to make it very difficult for the Fed to not raise rates. "

"expect to see the price surge after launch and oftentimes a surge in price after the IPO can last you know between one day to a few weeks. You'll likely see it sort of fall back in some going into the second half of the year and from there I could see it beginning a more durable journey. "

"I think there's going to be a good buying opportunity for SpaceX really really soon u after this sort of initial hype wears off. "

"I'm saying usually the time to start getting back into the market for Bitcoin is right after that June low, then accumulation uh through the end of the midterm year, even as price goes lower, often works out the best. "

"My guess as what's going to happen is Bitcoin will find a low in June, rally in July, and then people are going to be saying, well, it doesn't need to go for a full year because we didn't have a euphoric rally. That that is kind of what I see being the bix, the the next big debate. The problem is that when it happened in 2020, it was price-based capitulation. So, I would be in that camp if Bitcoin had price-based capitulation. If all the on-chain indicators reset, then I don't think it would make sense to stay bearish into Q4. "

"my guess is that gold will likely find a low between the June to October timeframe. The reason I say that is because on average, gold tends to bottom in June or July in mid-term years. Uh but if stocks get a correction, it could drag gold down with it. "

"I do think it will eventually put in new all-time highs in the 2027-2028 time frame, but if you want to happen but if you want it to happen in 2026, we need to see we need to see gold bottom out relatively soon. "

"my guess is that gold will likely find a low, probably between the June to October time frame, but on average in midterm years, gold tends to bottom in June or July. On average. "

"I think this clearly shows that we are likely in the third and final stage of the bare market and that we should expect Bitcoin probably to bottom out uh this year. Right? I think it'll happen this year. Obviously, I've mentioned October a number of times, and I think that's the most likely month, but of course, it could happen at any moment. "

"So I would say somewhere in that ballpark is going to be the market cycle bottom. It's usually not right when they cross. And if we do see it uncross for a while, it would likely be like what it did in 2022 where then they probably cross again as we get in sort of that September, like August, September time frame. "

"My argument now is that we are in fact in stage three of the bear market. I believe this stage will last approximately the same length as the first two stages. So, this one in my opinion will take us from June of 2026 to October of 2026. "

"To dubiously speculate, my guess is that Bitcoin will form a low in June. It is too early, unfortunately, to know definitively if the low is in. I would say you have at least a point for the bulls that they were able to close back above the 200E moving average. So that's at least something. And if Bitcoin can hold the 200E moving average for the next couple of weeks, then I think that would significantly increase the odds of a counter trend rally into July, maybe back up to the bare market resistance band. "

"I believe this stage will last approximately the same length as the first two stages. So this one in my opinion will take us from June of 2026 to October of 2026. "

"However, if there is a massive capitulation in June, then the October low could actually be a higher low. But, at the current prices, I think it would be more likely to be a lower low. "

"So for now, I think it makes sense to defer to time-based capitulation and say that the most likely low will occur in October. "

"Ultimately, I do think Bitcoin will likely go below 60k. Uh it might happen while we are on the And you know, I would I would I would still argue that the most likely time for a low is not until the fourth quarter of the year and that it would likely be on the back of a correction in the stock market. "

"My base case as of June 5th is that the low will occur in Q4. However, things are getting kind of brutal out there. It's still only early June. "

"I think gold will bottom first. You might actually find Bitcoin and gold putting in a low around the same time, but there's a good chance that later in the year gold will put in a higher low, Bitcoin will put in a lower low, and then that would be the market cycle bottom. "

"my guess is that after the IPOs, you'll likely have a correction in the markets because it's going to be a massive liquidity event. Historically, there is a correction in the beginning of midterm years and the end of midterm years in the stock market. Um and normally Bitcoin bottoms during the second correction by the stock market in the midterm year. "

"I think gold will bottom first. You might actually find Bitcoin and gold putting in a low around the same time, but there's a good chance that later in the year gold will put in a higher low, Bitcoin will put in a lower low, and then that would be the market cycle bottom. "

"So, again, when we're looking at a distribution of the probabilities, I would say the most likely month for a low is October, but that doesn't mean you can't have a low in June, and that you can't have a low in January. It just means that at the current time, they're not the most likely outcomes. "

"So, if Bitcoin were to go below the realized price, that would give you some more confidence that the low is in. And if it were to go below the balance price, that would essentially be equivalent to if not slightly worse than the August 2010 dislocation. "

"If I had to guess, if you said, "All right, guess the path." I would say what's most likely to happen is that Bitcoin tags 70k soon, bounces back up for a few days, and then goes back to the February lows. "

"One way in which it could play out is Bitcoin could come down here to the 200-week moving average, maybe wick below it and take out the low from February of 2026, and then try to hold that 200-week moving average going into the summer. "

"One way it could play out is Bitcoin drops down to that 200-week moving average, maybe even goes below it, maybe sweeps the prior low, kind of like it did in 2018 where it swept the low, bounces into July, right? And then we wait and figure out if Bitcoin gets the final dropping Q4 like it always does. Does it get the final drop at the end of the year? "

"I mean, I I think that ignoring crypto for the first half of the mid-term year is usually the right move. And then the second half, you start to look for good deals kind of in preparation for the next market cycle. "

"I think I think Bitcoin would probably bottom I I'd say there's a good chance Bitcoin would bottom before the recession is announced. Um like on average, the stock market bottoms like 15 day If you look at like last six or seven recessions, uh the stock market has bottomed like 15 days before the recession is declared. And I think that Bitcoin would probably bottom earlier than that because it's further, you know, it's further up the risk curve. It tends to price things in a lot quicker. "

"I don't I don't see things changing. I mean, you usually what happens in mid-term years is we kind of go down into June. And then we kind of bounce some in the summer. Like we'll bounce in like July or August. And then we kind of get the final low in in the fourth quarter of the year. So, that's probably how it's going to play out if I had to guess. And if it plays out like that, I think this sort of boring view is is likely going to continue. "

"I mean, I think Bitcoin's going to keep bleeding against both the stock market and gold and energy and manufacturing. This is what it does in mid-term years. It's not like in this case is not different this time. It's actually this is how it always plays out. The only the only thing is different this time is there wasn't a blow-off top. So, we you know, not we like we weren't really coming off that euphoric feeling. And I think a lot of times when you have a euphoria at the end of a cycle, that euphoria can take like five or six months mentally to kind of die out. "

"If you look at the S&P M2 fractal, the next larger drop likely won't start until the third quarter of the year. So, what I could see happening is this. I can see a smaller drop happening in the summer and then a rebound and then a larger drop happening as we get later on into Q3 going into early Q4. And then after that, you might see a rebound once again. "

"I think Bitcoin's going to continue to underperform the S&P 500 for at least a few more months, and then probably start to outperform again, hopefully next year. "

"In the short term in the short term, Ethereum will likely head back down to those April 2025 lows, which happens to correspond to the lower part of the regression band. "