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Igor Janke on Armed conflicts — predictions scored

Igor Janke on Armed conflicts — predictions scored

187 tracked claims · Accuracy: 84%

Igor Janke Igor Janke 11.05.2026
True
"In 2025, other sanctions were also imposed on the Russian oil sector. Kinetic sanctions introduced by Ukraine, hitting Russian refineries and pipelines with their drones. Russian refineries flowed like candles on a birthday cake. Thanks to very precise, very well-aimed, often repeated attacks in the same places, the Ukrainians managed at some point to disable as much as 40% of Russian oil processing. This caused a fuel crisis in Russia. There was even a paradoxical situation in which a country called a gas station for Europe was left without fuel itself, because Russians living in various parts of the Russian Federation began to notice the lack of availability of, for example, gasoline. Ration cards for the sale of this fuel were introduced. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 02.06.2026
Occurred
"Iran also threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz and attack vessels passing through the Bab Al-Mandab Strait and the Red Sea to punish Israel in this way. "
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⚠️ Warning Armed Conflicts 2026
Igor Janke Igor Janke 27.05.2026
True
"The Russian Ambassador to Poland was summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in connection with threats of a massive attack on Ukraine. On Monday, Russian authorities warned diplomats from other countries about planned intensive strikes on Kyiv. The Russian Ambassador in Warsaw, Georgij Michno, was summoned to the Polish Ministry of Diplomacy. He received Poland's official position, which, according to a statement issued by the MFA, called on Russia to immediately cease unjustified and unlawful aggression and to comply with international obligations and treaties. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 24.05.2026
True
"Objectively, there are more and more, because Ukraine can now destroy Russian military targets at a distance of one thousand, one thousand five hundred kilometers from its borders, or from the front line, so we simply see how the number of Russian industrial and military facilities that have been attacked by Ukraine, or that have been destroyed, is increasing. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 21.05.2026
Pending
"Yesterday, Israeli forces intercepted a flotilla sailing from Barcelona. The Glomal Sumut humanitarian flotilla attempted to break the blockade around the Gaza Strip. Activists were detained in international waters, brought ashore, and the Israeli Minister of National Security drastically humiliated the detained 450 activists. Among them were Poles. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 14.05.2026
? Unverifiable
"If we look at the Russians' ability to use such drones on a monthly basis, we are talking about five, six thousand. That is, tens of thousands of smaller drones directly on the battlefield and four, five thousand drones per month whose range practically covers all of Poland. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 14.05.2026
Pending
"The Russian Federation currently has about 100,000 soldiers in unmanned systems. By the end of the year, I plan to increase these forces by 160,000, to 160,000, additionally train about 70,000 university students as drone operators. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 14.05.2026
True
"Ukraine currently has seven brigades of unmanned systems and several independent units. Ukraine's annual drone production currently reaches almost four million units, and Ukraine intends to significantly increase them next year. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 14.05.2026
True
"Currently, drones are one of the main means of attack, used by both the Ukrainian and Russian armies. And now, at the level of the direct battlefield, i.e., the line of contact, these are precisely these first-class drones, i.e., small drones. They are used in numbers of tens of thousands monthly by both sides to hunt individual targets. They also quite effectively combat armored targets. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 08.05.2026
True
"When the war was ongoing, the Ukrainian war was beginning, not really a war, an invasion, Russian aggression against Ukraine, President Putin in March and April 2022 pressured President Lukashenka to send Belarusian troops to the border with Ukraine and use them in the aggression against Ukraine. President Lukashenka did not agree to this. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 01.05.2026
Occurred
"If a Ukrainian carries out an attack here in Poland, what will that cause? A wave of hatred and everything against Ukraine. Who is supposed to carry out these attacks? Russians, dear sirs, open your eyes a bit and understand the scheme of hybrid warfare and what is happening. We won't catch an FSB officer here who will carry out any attack, but they will do it with the hands of people who are already here, stupid Ukrainians or stupid Poles, who for a few zlotys stick Wagner group stickers in Warsaw or cause some acts of sabotage. "
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⚠️ Warning Armed Conflicts 2027
Igor Janke Igor Janke 27.04.2026
True
"Mali's Minister of Defense, General Sadio Kamara, died during a jihadist offensive. Fundamentalists launched attacks on military bases in this African country on Saturday. Kamara died in a suicide car bomb attack on his residence in the city of Kati, where a Malian armed forces garrison is located. His wife and two grandchildren died with him. Al Jazeera television emphasizes that he was one of the key military leaders who took power in Mali five years ago after a coup. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 24.04.2026
? Unverifiable
"Over a month and a half of fighting between Israeli defense forces and Lebanese Hezbollah, over 2400 people were killed and about 7000 were injured. Among the victims were also several media workers. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 14.04.2026
True
"The United States, in accordance with Sunday's announcements, blocked the Strait of Hormuz. American President Donald Trump threatened Iran with the destruction of its ships if they approached US naval vessels. On Sunday, after the failure of American-Iranian peace talks in Pakistan, the leader of the United States announced the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday at 4:00 PM Polish time, a total of 15 American units began it. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 25.03.2026
True
"On Monday, Israeli defense forces blew up a bridge on the Litani River, intended for Hezbollah to transport fighters to southern Lebanon. Israel's goal is to create a 30 km buffer zone between the Israeli-Lebanese border and the Litani River. Since March 2, Israelis have been bombing southern Lebanon, Beirut suburbs, and the Beqaa Valley, which are strongholds of the Shiite party of God. Over 1000 Lebanese have died in the airstrikes, and almost a million of them have had to leave their homes. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 25.03.2026
! Misleading
"Iran wants to hear peace proposals from the United States. Donald Trump praises Iranians for a gesture of goodwill. Due to the war in the Middle East, the European Commission is delaying the introduction of a ban on oil imports from Russia. France challenged Israel to withdraw from the plan to occupy southern Lebanon. The European Union signed a trade cooperation agreement with Australia. Russia resumes offensive in Ukraine after lack of progress in peace negotiations. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 23.03.2026
Pending
"In reality, despite the losses they are incurring, so far the United States has not achieved any goals. Yes. Neither has the regime been overthrown, nor have the places where uranium is produced and enriched been eliminated. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 23.03.2026
True
"Now what you're saying about Dimona has happened. And this attack on an island, which is located 4000 km away, shows that this state still has very significant strike capabilities. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 19.03.2026
Pending
"Iran's military responded to an Israeli attack on the world's largest natural gas fields. Iran's Supreme Leader Mztaba Hamenej announces revenge for the killing of Iran's security chief Ali Leridani. The armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran on Wednesday evening carried out a series of strikes targeting, among others, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 15.03.2026
True
"Americans and do not have sufficient good anti-drone defense, because they are able to shoot down these drones of course, but there is an improbable difference in costs. These drones that Iran sends are much, much cheaper than these interceptors that can neutralize them. And that difference is there between, I don't know, 10 and 20 times, when it comes to price, so the cost of defense against these Shaheds and other Iranian drones is extremely, extremely high. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 02.06.2026
Pending
"Israel and Hezbollah are to observe a ceasefire again. Iran suspended diplomatic talks with the United States due to Israeli announcements of renewed attacks on Lebanon. American President Donald Trump stated that on Monday evening he spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and, through diplomats, with the leaders of Lebanese Hezbollah. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 28.05.2026
True
"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has written to U.S. President Donald Trump and Congress asking for more American-made air defense ammunition to counter intensifying Russian ballistic missile attacks, Kyiv said Wednesday. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 27.05.2026
Pending
"The actions of the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs were coordinated with other European Union countries. They also summoned representatives of Russian diplomatic missions to their diplomatic departments. On Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov informed US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that his country would launch a wave of massive attacks on the Ukrainian capital. The head of Russian diplomacy called on diplomatic missions of other countries and all foreigners to immediately leave Kyiv. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 27.05.2026
True
"Iranian supreme spiritual leader Moztaba Hamenei called on Middle Eastern states to shape a new regional order. American aviation carried out strikes in southern Iran. Its target was supposed to be missile launcher positions, as well as two units of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attempting to lay naval mines south of Larak Island, located near the Strait of Hormuz. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 27.05.2026
True
"The European Commission described these threats as an unacceptable escalation of the conflict that has been ongoing for almost four years. Russia carried out one of its heaviest strikes since the beginning of the war, targeting the Ukrainian capital and its surroundings over the weekend. In the attacks, the Russian military used, among other things, Oreshnik medium-range missiles, which, according to the Russians, are almost impossible for air defense systems to intercept. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 27.05.2026
True
"Iran's army announced that in case of further attacks from the USA and Israel, it would undertake much stronger retaliatory actions. The resumption of war, in turn, would mean its spread beyond the Middle East region. A few hours after the attacks, Iran's Supreme Leader spoke. In a statement quoted by Iranian state media, he referred to the most important moment of the annual Muslim pilgrimage of Hajj. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 25.05.2026
! Misleading
"Russia, despite various lean years, always heavily invested in its submarine fleet, because it is the most difficult to detect and it is both a first-strike and second-strike weapon, meaning it can be decapitating as well as annihilating. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 25.05.2026
! Misleading
"France has given up its missile forces. And it has left itself an elementary component to a much lesser extent, but the bulk of its nuclear potential has been locked in submarine launchers. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 25.05.2026
True
"Just as Great Britain did, completely transferring its nuclear arsenal exclusively to submarines. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 24.05.2026
Pending
"There is a high risk that aggression will resume, and Ukraine will then be worse prepared because it will not be able to mobilize as in 2022. "
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⚠️ Warning Armed Conflicts 2031
Igor Janke Igor Janke 24.05.2026
True
"In seven out of ten administrative districts of the city, residential buildings, dormitories, schools, a business center, a shopping center, and a supermarket are destroyed. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 24.05.2026
Occurred
"Therefore, I am afraid that there may be more such attacks. I don't know if it will be Kyiv, although Kyiv is important due to its symbolism, it could be other cities, but this Russian terror will unfortunately continue. "
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⚠️ Warning Armed Conflicts 2028
Igor Janke Igor Janke 24.05.2026
True
"90 missiles of various attacks were used, including a great many ballistic missiles. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 24.05.2026
Pending
"In my opinion, they will unfortunately repeat. However, I am convinced that they will not break the morale of Ukrainians and, I would say, will ultimately not affect the course of this war, or who will win. "
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💬 Opinion Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 23.05.2026
True
"It is precisely the Siege of Constantinople that is a unique new type of military experience, the large-scale use of artillery, and artillery with unprecedented parameters. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 23.05.2026
True
"Europe knows this very well, because the Turks routed two European crusades directed against them. First, we have the defeat of Emperor Sigismund of Luxembourg's army at Nicopolis. An army that included the flower of Burgundian and French knighthood, as well as Polish reinforcements. This army was slaughtered, not just defeated, but slaughtered. And then we have our Hungarian-Polish experience, we have the defeat at Varna. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 22.05.2026
Pending
"Last year, the Polish army ordered almost 5,000 devices for soldier training. The domestic industry was unable to fulfill such an order, and as a result, Chinese drones are flying in the Polish army. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 22.05.2026
? Unverifiable
"Last year we bought 5000 drones. Our army's purchases are being destroyed within a few days in the Ukrainian war. These are official data provided by our ministry. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 22.05.2026
! Misleading
"On the same day, Lukashenka, together with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, observed Belarusian-Russian exercises dedicated to the use of tactical nuclear weapons. The Ukrainska Pravda newspaper reminds that last week Zelensky met with the command of the Ukrainian armed forces and the Security Service of Ukraine. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 18.05.2026
True
"On the night from Saturday to Sunday, the Security Service of Ukraine in cooperation with the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out a series of drone attacks. Their main target was military, industrial, and energy infrastructure located in the capital of Russia and its surroundings, as well as on the Crimean Peninsula. As a result of the Ukrainian attacks, three Russian civilians died. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts