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Igor Janke on Armed conflicts — predictions scored

Igor Janke on Armed conflicts — predictions scored

187 tracked claims · Accuracy: 84%

Igor Janke Igor Janke 26.03.2026
True
"And on the other hand, if you allow me, I will add, because I observed that part more with my own eyes. A large part of society there in Ukraine, yes, which did, performed various works for, for the army, or cooperated with the army and private companies that switched overnight to paramilitary companies cooperating with the military, or I don't know, women, grandmothers sewing some materials that were supposed to cover tanks, or a lot of other things producing for the needs of the army, society collecting huge amounts of money for the needs of the army. Yes, it was an unbelievable surge. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 26.03.2026
Occurred
"Isn't it true that in the face of what we've been dealing with for the past three weeks, that is, the war in Iran, the American-Israeli attack on Iran, and such a sudden redirection of attention that probably no one expected? Anyway, it wasn't announced. President Trump announced a completely different policy. I mean, don't we also have to prepare for such a situation and accept such a black scenario that the United States won't be in it, that their interest will be much, or their presence will be much smaller than it is? "
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⚠️ Warning Armed Conflicts 2026
Igor Janke Igor Janke 25.03.2026
! Misleading
"While we recognize Israel's right, like all other countries, to self-defense, nothing can justify the continuation of Israeli military actions in Lebanon and the increasingly deep occupation of Lebanese territory. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 25.03.2026
True
"Russia resumed its military offensive in Ukraine. Spring attacks are supposedly related to a stalemate in ongoing peace negotiations. The Russian military has intensified its actions on all front lines in recent days. Its air force also carried out further bombardments on Monday to Tuesday night. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 24.03.2026
Pending
"Shouldn't we start talking about and preparing for this? I'm not saying we should announce right now that we want to produce it, right? But to slowly build capabilities that could result in us having those capabilities in case we are only 5 or 10 years away from it, but perhaps discuss this with Scandinavian countries, because it's always easier to swallow when it's not just one country, right? It's just step by step that this conversation begins, communication on this matter begins. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 22.03.2026
False
"Donald Trump issued an ultimatum to Iran. If within 48 hours, and today it's probably within 20, 30 hours from the moment we are speaking, Iran does not unblock the Strait of Hormuz. Then a powerful attack will be carried out, especially on Iranian power plants. There may also be a ground invasion in some places. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 19.03.2026
True
""Every drop of blood has its due retribution" and that the "criminal murderers of these martyrs will soon have to pay". "The US and Israel have continued a joint offensive on Iran since Feb. 28, killing so far around 1,300 people, including then-Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran has retaliated with drone and missile strikes targeting Israel, Jordan, Iraq, and Gulf countries hosting US military assets, causing casualties and damage to infrastructure while disrupting global markets and aviation". "The war between the United States, Israel and Iran has been going on for over two weeks and there is no indication of its quick end". "Paradoxically, the initiative – at least temporarily – passed into the hands of Tehran, whose capitulation is unlikely. In the current circumstances, when all parties are rather interested in escalating the conflict, the chances of quickly restoring lasting stability in the region seem negligible". "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 19.03.2026
True
"Israel's attack on Lebanon is increasingly worrying the European Union and the United Nations. The Israeli army destroyed two bridges on the Litani River in southern Lebanon on Wednesday. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 19.03.2026
True
"Israel once again became the target of rockets launched from Iran. The 62nd wave of rocket attacks targeted military facilities in Acre, Beersheba, Haifa, and Tel Aviv. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 14.03.2026
False
"In connection with this, I suspect that within the next few days we will see an attempt to reach some kind of exit ramp. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 13.03.2026
Fulfilled
"So from our point of view, as we look at scenarios for the next 10 years, a US-China war. A US-China war as a scenario for the next 10 years is an absolutely fatal course of events, and we don't want it to happen. "
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💬 Opinion Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 13.03.2026
· Unverified
"Unia Europejska zamierza wysłać swoją misję rozpoznawczą na Ukrainę, aby sprawdziła ona stan rurociągu przyjaźni. W środę swoich inspektorów na ukraińskie terytorium wysłały Słowacja i Węgry. Pod koniec stycznia infrastruktura służąca do przesyłania ropy naftowej z Rosji miała zostać zniszczona podczas jednego z rosyjskich ataków. "
🌐 original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 13.03.2026
True
"The priority is to avenge the 175 victims of the attack on the girls' primary school in Minab. Additionally, the Iranian state will demand war reparations from countries that attack it in the future. The religious and political leader of Iran intends to continue the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 13.03.2026
True
"Another thing is, if America succeeds in the whole escapade, meaning if it wins this war and comes to an agreement with the Iranian regime, the United States will gain a layer of control over oil flows to China. China draws a huge part of its oil from the Middle East, including Iran. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 13.03.2026
! Misleading
"We will continue to strike U.S. bases in the region while maintaining friendly relations with neighbouring countries. We have targeted only those bases. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 11.03.2026
True
"On Tuesday evening, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps carried out another attack aimed at Israel. The Iranians fired their missiles towards Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and military bases located in the central part of that country. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 11.03.2026
! Misleading
"So far, in the ongoing 11-day war, nine American soldiers have died, and about 140 have been wounded, including eight seriously. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announces the continuation of the war against Iran. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 11.03.2026
True
"The Iranian Revolutionary Guard was reported in recent days to have launched its modern missiles from Iranian territory, with warheads weighing over a ton. Hypersonic missiles allow for precise strikes on specific targets located in other Middle Eastern countries. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 11.03.2026
! Misleading
"Iran is to launch increasingly better missiles towards its regional adversaries. The United States announces that, despite a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, an operation against Iran will lead to a decrease in oil and natural gas prices. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 11.03.2026
Pending
"And having said that, Donald Trump started a campaign around the world from Panama, Venezuela. Well, in Greenland it was more of a hooting. We now have Iran. We have huge money, a billion dollars a day, being spent on this, and we don't hear such a clear, strategic message. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 09.03.2026
True
"The Iranian Ministry of Health reported on Sunday about further war casualties. So far, approximately 1200 people are said to have died in the conflict, including, among others, 200 women and the same number of children. The Red Crescent reported that nearly 10,000 civilian buildings have been destroyed or damaged in the airstrikes so far. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 09.03.2026
True
"Americans along with Israelis continue to bomb targets on Iranian territory. From Saturday to Sunday, they hit oil tanks and other oil installations located, among other places, in the capital itself. The fires caused toxic rain in Tehran, against which the Red Crescent warns. It can cause chemical skin burns and lung damage. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 06.03.2026
True
"Iran for the first time in the conflict struck Azerbaijani territory, and one of the drones fell on an airport in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 06.03.2026
! Misleading
"HMS Dragon deployed March 10 after a two-week period of preparations for her voyage, and she arrived off Cyprus on March 27. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 05.03.2026
True
"Spain, Italy, the Netherlands have already announced that in the coming days they will send a fleet to strengthen the defense of Cyprus, and France has allowed the United States to use some of its bases in the Middle East. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 05.03.2026
Pending
"Azerbaijan was attacked. An explosion near the Azerbaijani airport near Baku. This is the latest news from the expanding war front. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 02.06.2026
! Misleading
"Israel is to give up attacking Lebanon. Iran suspended talks with the United States. The President appointed a new operational commander of the armed forces. The Prime Minister of Hungary may become president. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 28.05.2026
· Unverified
"Ukraińskie zapasy mają powoli się wyczerpywać z powodu nasilających się ataków ze strony Rosji. "
🌐 original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 28.05.2026
True
"Russian authorities announced at the beginning of the week systematic strikes on Ukrainian decision-making centers, i.e., military and government facilities located in Kyiv. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 26.05.2026
True
"Ukraine significantly intensified its intermediate-range strike campaign against dynamic targets in Spring 2026 in order to degrade Russian logistics at operational depths ahead of a planned Ukrainian maneuver. Ukrainian forces notably began in May 2026 to interdict key Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in occupied Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts. ISW noted that Russia's daily rate of advance has fallen sharply in 2026, while Ukraine has, for the first time since its 2023 counteroffensive, begun to regain more ground than it lost during certain periods; it assesses that Russian forces suffered a net loss of 116 square kilometers in April 2026. The G7 leaders applauded Ukraine's recent battlefield performance... 'We commend Ukraine for its resilience and progress on the battlefield in recent months and emphasize there is now a new momentum' in Kyiv's resistance. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 22.05.2026
True
"We have a corps headquarters in Poznań, we have a logistics base in Powidz, we have these rotational units in Żagań and Orzysz. And a very important air defense base in Redzikowo. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 20.05.2026
! Disputed
"I immediately have a counter-argument. If this even partial sovereignty didn't exist, then Belarusian troops would probably participate in the war in Ukraine. Yes. Mhm. That's right. They didn't participate. So isn't that also like a price we should pay for it? "
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💬 Opinion Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 18.05.2026
True
"Ukraine shows that Russia is also becoming less effective, that Russia can no longer do what it wants even in its near abroad, because Russia is not winning this war. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 18.05.2026
True
"On the one hand, while waging this war with Ukraine, Russians tell everyone that they are already fighting NATO, and that's why they are doing so poorly, because the entire NATO is behind Ukraine, but in reality, that's not entirely true. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 14.05.2026
! Misleading
"Poland possesses naval drones, which might be interesting for you, e.g., our mine destroyers are indeed equipped with naval drones whose task is to precisely detect and destroy mines, but these drones also have the capability to lay such mines. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 11.05.2026
True
"The culmination of these strikes occurred precisely at the moment when field work related to summer and simply the harvest season was beginning in Russia, and tourist movement related to holidays was also constantly functioning. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 07.05.2026
True
"Russians are currently slowly bypassing Ukrainian fortifications on the Bilytske and Dobropillia line. The second main direction of Russian strikes is the Kostiantynivka area. Russians reached this town as a result of the first stage of a successful winter offensive, where they broke through Ukrainian defenses on a fairly wide front. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 07.05.2026
? Unverifiable
"The armed forces of the Russian Federation are in the process of concluding the ninth phase of the offensive, which is actually the ninth campaign. The armed forces of the Russian Federation conduct spring-summer and autumn-winter campaigns. The autumn-winter campaign has just ended, and the armed forces of the Russian Federation are preparing to launch a spring-summer campaign. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 07.05.2026
True
"Iranians attacked allies, those American vassals in the Gulf, who turned out to be defenseless, and the Americans did not defend them properly. Meaning these Arab countries. "
translated PL · original
✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts
Igor Janke Igor Janke 07.05.2026
True
"Thanks to this, Ukraine probably didn't lose the war. Because it developed such capabilities for cheap production of various things. "
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✅ Factual claim Armed Conflicts